How it works

Polymarket Watch flags cases with no AI or machine learning in the detection — just plain, explainable rules over public on-chain data from Polymarket's open API. We look for patterns, not semantics.

Two passes

1. LIVE We poll the global trade feed and flag suspicious open positions: large bets on improbable outcomes, placed by fresh wallets on sensitive or illiquid markets.
2. RESOLUTION When a market resolves we pull the big winners and reconstruct when and how cheaply they bought. Confirmed improbable wins get published.

The signals

• Fresh wallet (created shortly before)
• Low-odds entry (improbable outcome)
• Large position vs market volume
• Bought before the price jump
• Sniper cluster (coordinated timing)
• Sensitive category (info asymmetry plausible)

What this is NOT

A flag is not an accusation. Insider trading cannot be proven from trading data alone, and a wallet is not an identified person. Treat it as a starting point for scrutiny — everything is verifiable via the raw-data links.