Polymarket Watch

Someone knew first.

Improbable wins on Polymarket, flagged automatically. Every case is a statistical anomaly from open on-chain data — not an accusation.

Confirmed4
Watching9
🟡 Watching (open)
61

Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?

Entry0.1¢
Position$2,265
Potential$1,534,287
Crazy-Risk · outcome Yes
  • Fresh wallet: first activity 32.8h before
  • Entry at 0.1¢ (~678.3× if it wins)
  • Position: $2,265 (0.0% of volume)
🟡 Watching (open)
74

Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Entry2.2¢
Position$2,415
Potential$107,943
Sore-Locker-Sensor · outcome Yes
  • Fresh wallet: first activity 0.3h before
  • Entry at 2.2¢ (~45.7× if it wins)
  • Position: $2,415 (0.0% of volume)
🟡 Watching (open)
88

Will Ben Butler be the Republican nominee for FL-09?

Entry23.2¢
Position$1,491
Potential$4,944
Awesome-Availability · outcome Yes
  • Entry at 23.2¢ (~4.3× if it wins)
  • Position: $1,491 (9.8% of volume)
  • Sensitive category (information asymmetry plausible)
🟡 Watching (open)
62

Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?

Entry16.0¢
Position$1,382
Potential$7,249
Awesome-Availability · outcome Yes
  • Entry at 16.0¢ (~6.2× if it wins)
  • Position: $1,382 (3.4% of volume)
  • Illiquid market (×1.5 risk)
🔴 Confirmed win
81

Will John Nagel be the MN-05 Republican nominee?

Entry21.5¢
Position$291
Profit$1,066
Experienced-Smell-Railroad · outcome Yes
  • Bought the winner at 21.5¢ (~4.7× payout)
  • Positioned 30.6h before the price jumped 11¢→98¢
  • Sensitive category (information asymmetry plausible)
🔴 Confirmed win
100

Will John Nagel be the MN-05 Republican nominee?

Entry15.2¢
Position$2,057
Profit$11,478
SnowLover7 · outcome Yes
  • Bought the winner at 15.2¢ (~6.6× payout)
  • Large position: $2,057 = 4.1% of market volume
  • Positioned 59.9h before the price jumped 11¢→98¢
🟡 Watching (open)
95

Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?

Entry15.0¢
Position$15,684
Potential$88,877
Equal-Priest · outcome Yes
  • Fresh wallet: first activity 4.9h before
  • Entry at 15.0¢ (~6.7× if it wins)
  • Position: $15,684 (4.8% of volume)
🟡 Watching (open)
78

Will Rafael Jodar Win ATP Montreal

Entry15.6¢
Position$2,921
Potential$15,774
Wise-Phenotype · outcome Yes
  • Entry at 15.6¢ (~6.4× if it wins)
  • Position: $2,921 (45.5% of volume)
  • Illiquid market (×1.5 risk)
🟡 Watching (open)
86

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?

Entry24.8¢
Position$2,556
Potential$7,735
Experienced-Goodie · outcome Yes
  • Entry at 24.8¢ (~4.0× if it wins)
  • Position: $2,556 (6.7% of volume)
  • Sensitive category (information asymmetry plausible)
🟡 Watching (open)
98

Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 14?

Entry9.1¢
Position$2,222
Potential$22,226
Awesome-Availability · outcome Yes
  • Entry at 9.1¢ (~11.0× if it wins)
  • Position: $2,222 (20.2% of volume)
  • Sensitive category (information asymmetry plausible)
🔴 Confirmed win
83

Will Charlie Hatcher be the TN-05 Republican nominee?

Entry21.7¢
Position$2,426
Profit$8,773
SnowLover7 · outcome Yes
  • Bought the winner at 21.7¢ (~4.6× payout)
  • Large position: $2,426 = 4.4% of market volume
  • Positioned 35.3h before the price jumped 12¢→100¢
🟡 Watching (open)
74

Will Lionel Messi attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?

Entry5.1¢
Position$1,275
Potential$23,781
Embarrassed-Atmosphere · outcome Yes
  • Entry at 5.1¢ (~19.7× if it wins)
  • Position: $1,275 (4.1% of volume)
  • Illiquid market (×1.5 risk)
🔴 Confirmed win
66

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Entry17.3¢
Position$835
Profit$3,980
0x636f…f1cc · outcome Yes
  • Fresh wallet: first activity 0.0h before the buy (25 trades total)
  • Bought the winner at 17.3¢ (~5.8× payout)
  • Sensitive category (information asymmetry plausible)